Securing American AI Superiority
Four resources to secure for the looming Intelligence Explosion
AI super intelligence might come a lot faster than anticipated. AI advancement requires four resources: 1) information 2) AI researchers 3) energy 4) compute. Here’s my brief thoughts on each. I’d love suggestions for papers or books to read if anyone has any!
Information
I’ll touch on information first because I think a big portion of new information and data will come from smart glasses and direct messaging platforms. Meta has both. Tech reporters skeptical of Meta’s investments in Reality Labs show their ignorance because they don’t understand the importance of multi-modal data ingestion for AI training superiority.
The internet has already been scraped by every player. Marginal utility is reaching an asymptote from internet scraping. You need superior proprietary data.
Unique sources of information will be the key advantage for different players. Microsoft will obtain this through Windows and their office suite. Google will obtain this through google’s suite. Apple through the iPhone.
AI Researchers
AI researchers themselves can be modeled and automated. We can train models to do all types of things but the biggest thing is modeling a researcher. This is my biggest insight from reading Situational Awareness over the weekend.
AI researcher models will be able to work day and night. Together. In adversarial models against each other. The limitation will be energy to run the compute and the chips for the compute. I already touched on information, so let’s go to the other two.
Energy
The first roadblock will be energy. America needs to create more energy to sustain running the AI farms. That’s why nuclear energy companies like Constellation are surging.
Energy needs to be scaled up. The only sustainable solution is nuclear energy growth.
Compute
Let’s take a look at compute. In particular, let’s see where advanced AI chips are being made.
Compute represents the largest risk factor. It’s all in Taiwan which faces a threat of an invasion. American companies need to de-risk this.
They need to push advanced chip manufacturing to move to North America where it can be protected by America’s nuclear arsenal. Until then, Taiwan is Dune with advanced chips representing Spice in this analogy.
Advanced chips for AI are a critical resource upon which everything else requires. Right now, American tech leaders have no strategy other than praying no invasion happens. They need to be more proactive here.
I’m interested in strong educated opinions on the topics of 1) information 2) AI researchers 3) energy 4) compute for building models. Would love to chat if you have any thoughts!