Meta's Pivot to Glasses and Spark AR Shutdown
The end of the first era of consumer AR
Modern consumer augmented reality was popularized by face filters on social media.
Face filters allowed everyday women to share more content. Face filters reduced the friction to content creation:
Reduces time spent on makeup touchups
Reduced need for location switching for content creation
Tomorrow Meta shuts down their face filter creation platform which led to increased app usage. Why would Meta abandon Spark AR? Just last year they were going to integrate AR filter ads into their ad system. Why cancel it? The answer is both questions is AI.
Meta wants people to use their generative AI features as a priority. Here’s what I think happened. Face filters and consumer AR usage on Instagram and Facebook became a distraction from the new goal of increasing generative AI usage. That’s it.
Meta’s first consumer AR ecosystem became casualty of changing tides at a macro level.
As 2025 begins, I see Meta doubling down on AI. On the hardware side, this means glasses. Over the past year, Meta has been rebranding smart glasses to AI glasses. This is an important rebranding considering that Smart Glasses were anticipated to be a precursor to AR glasses. This is connected to the Spark AR shut down indirectly. Meta’s priority is to get people using their AI models. This priority influences all strategic decisions across all teams and all verticals.
The Rayban Meta Glasses have performed better than expected. I think this is the angle Meta sees for supplanting Apple. Not through the Quest but through the Glasses. Sometime over the next decade, we will see AR re-integrated into the smart glasses. But we are about to enter a dry period.
The Rayban Meta Glasses will succeed in a way that a lot of the competitors will fail. My video with Kiara alludes to the reason but women care about aesthetics and branding more than men on average.
Quick thoughts on CES. Last year at CES we saw a lot about AI pins and pendants. These products all failed. You are going to see a lot of articles about smart glasses. I’m sharing an opinionated take that other reporters won’t share.
Vuzix is a zombie company and will be sold off for IP eventually
XREAL will bleed money and not take off
I’m saying this as someone who is a big fan of AR and big believer in AR glasses in the long-term. Both Vuzix and XREAL lack fundamental branding and aesthetics to take off. Meta has a partnership with EssilorLuxottica - the top eyewear conglomerate in the world.
On a relative basis, opposing smart glasses companies will face a market where they have inferior branding and software. Is it possible to overcome this? It’s not zero but it’s not very likely.
Part of a tech reporter or influencer’s job is to keep this “anything can happen” perspective in order to maintain access to sources. Or maybe the journalists and influencers are not aware of the odds at all. But the portrayal of anything can happen with smart glasses I am seeing from CES is off. I think I know what will happen. It’s going to come down to Meta, Snap and Apple with Google on the outside lane looking in.
A note on this newsletter and what to expect in 2025.
I’m going to write more frequently across the domains of emerging technology, media and culture. Last year I didn’t write consistently because I was worried about people not wanting to read about AI. But a lot of these technology topics are interconnected because the companies that are driving the technologies are conglomerates.
If this new direction is not for you and you decide to unsubscribe, I wanted to express my gratitude to you for taking the time to read my essays the past few years. For those of you that remain, expect a higher publishing consistency but across a broader spectrum of domains. What will remain consistent is that I am committed long-form writing and strategic analysis.
I’ll also try to interview more people and introduce more perspectives from experts you don’t get from mainstream media. Traditional media sources interview the same people and get the same bland PR friendly non answers as answers. I want to share non-consensus perspectives.